A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
